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Manchester, New Hampshire-based economic Dr. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics told members of the AMC Institute today that U.S. economic growth will stay strong, although variable, through 2018 with the next recession, in 2019, “a mild one.”
The recession will be caused by higher interest rates and U.S. consumers taking on too much debt.
Beaulieu ran through a list “ongoing concerns” — including China’s debt, devaluation and “doubtful” growth; fear of instability from low oil prices; non-defense capital goods new orders, South America, U.S. debt, and world demographics.
But, giving a mini-lesson on the size of the U.S. economy vs. China’s, he emphasized that the U.S. needs to continue to focus on corporate profits. “Without corporate profits,” he said, “we’re all farmers again.”
Trends are favorable. Consumers are in great shape, world is relatively calm, employment is rising, banks are lending, and retail sales are rising, Beaulieu said.
Beaulieu consults with companies throughout the U.S., Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis.